Welcome to the Chaos: 2025 College Football Preview
The AFCA (US LBM) Coaches Poll and the AP Preseason Top 25 are both out—and they’re telling very similar stories. Texas is the undisputed preseason No. 1, but hanging at No. 3 in one poll or another could be the difference between confidence and controversy.
Here’s the updated team hierarchy, win–loss previews, CFP odds, and where both polls line up.
Preseason Top-25 Comparison: Coaches vs. AP (2025)
Source: AFCA/US LBM Coaches Poll & AP Top 25 (preseason, Aug. 2025).
| Rank | Coaches Poll | AP Poll |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas | Texas |
| 2 | Ohio State | Penn State |
| 3 | Penn State | Ohio State |
| 4 | Georgia | Clemson |
| 5 | Notre Dame | Georgia |
| 6 | Clemson | Notre Dame |
| 7 | Oregon | Oregon |
| 8 | Alabama | Alabama |
| 9 | LSU | LSU |
| 10 | Miami (FL) | Miami (FL) |
| 11 | Arizona State | Arizona State |
| 12 | Illinois | Illinois |
| 13 | South Carolina | South Carolina |
| 14 | Michigan | Michigan |
| 15 | Ole Miss | Florida |
| 16 | SMU | SMU |
| 17 | Florida | Kansas State |
| 18 | Tennessee | Oklahoma |
| 19 | Indiana | Texas A&M |
| 20 | Kansas State | Indiana |
| 21 | Texas A&M (tie) | Ole Miss |
| 21 | Iowa State (tie) | Iowa State |
| 23 | BYU | Texas Tech |
| 24 | Texas Tech | Tennessee |
| 25 | Boise State | Boise State |
Note: Coaches Poll lists Texas A&M and Iowa State tied at #21; AP ranks them #19 and #22 respectively.
Notably, Texas made history ranking No. 1 in both polls for the first time ever, with the AP poll being especially tight—Texas edged Penn State by just five points (AP). The AP poll also features Clemson at No. 4 and Georgia at No. 5—an intriguing tweak vs. the coaches’s lineup.
Team-by-Team Breakdown (Coaches / AP)
Texas Longhorns (#1 / #1)
Predicted Record: 10–2
CFP Odds: 90%
Why They Can Deliver: Unprecedented No. 1 in both major polls, loaded roster and hype around Arch Manning.
Biggest Risk: New QB lineup, brutal early-season gauntlet.
Penn State Nittany Lions (#3 / #2)
Predicted Record: 10–2
CFP Odds: 60%
Why They Can Deliver: Defensive firepower, QB Drew Allar, favorable schedule.
Biggest Risk: Big Ten grind leaves little margin for error.
Ohio State Buckeyes (#2 / #3)
Predicted Record: 11–1
CFP Odds: 85%
Why They Can Deliver: Traditions, talent overload; expect dominance in-season.
Biggest Risk: QB role unsettled; Week 1 vs. Texas will define narrative.
Clemson Tigers (#6 / #4)
Predicted Record: 9–3
CFP Odds: 30%
Why They Can Deliver: Elite defense, experience, QB Cade Klubnik.
Biggest Risk: Offensive adjustments needed.
Georgia Bulldogs (#4 / #5)
Predicted Record: 10–2
CFP Odds: 80%
Why They Can Deliver: Strong coaching, elite roster turnover.
Biggest Risk: New QB must deliver, passing game needs growth.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (#5 / #6)
Predicted Record: 10–2
CFP Odds: 50%
Why They Can Deliver: Depth, culture, toughness.
Biggest Risk: One more slip and their playoff window shuts.
Oregon Ducks (#7 / #7)
Predicted Record: 9–3
CFP Odds: 25%
Why They Can Deliver: Balanced roster with playmakers at WR/RB and an attacking defense.
Biggest Risk: Secondary depth tested against elite QBs. Penalties and red-zone stalls have flipped big games before.
Alabama Crimson Tide (#8 / #8)
Predicted Record: 10-2
CFP Odds: 40%
Why They Can Deliver: Talent ceiling still as high as anyone’s; front seven can dominate. Physical identity and special teams edge in tight SEC games.
Biggest Risk: Transition at QB/skill spots could cost a game late. If the offense sputters on 3rd down, they’re vulnerable to upsets.
LSU Tigers (#9 / #9)
Predicted Record: 9-3
CFP Odds: 30%
Why They Can Deliver: Dynamic passing game with big-play receivers; can score on anyone. When the defense heats up, they snowball momentum fast.
Biggest Risk: Secondary consistency vs. top offenses. If turnovers spike, shootouts tilt the wrong way.
Miami Hurricanes (#10 / #10)
Predicted Record: 9-3
CFP Odds: 20%
Why They Can Deliver: Playmakers at the skill spots and a defense that creates negative plays. Schedule offers statement-win opportunities that move CFP needles.
Biggest Risk: Week-to-week inconsistency; killer penalties/coverage busts at bad times. Depth tested if injuries stack up in November.
And since I’m a huge Florida Gators fan I have to include them in this!
Florida Gators (#17 / #15)
Predicted Record: 8-4
CFP Odds: 10%
Why They Can Deliver: QB DJ Lagway and RB Jadan Baugh headline a balanced offense with returning O-line experience. Top-10 recruiting class plus six key transfers add depth and versatility. Revamped coaching staff with OC Russ Callaway and co-defensive coordinators Ron Roberts, Robert Bala, and Vinnie Sunseri could spark year-over-year improvement.
Biggest Risk: Brutal SEC schedule including LSU, Miami, Texas, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, and Georgia. Needs consistency in the passing game and discipline to avoid costly penalties in tight contests.
Final Take:
The road to the CFP is paved with overconfidence, trap games, and one-score heartbreakers. The 2025 season will prove — once again — that rankings mean nothing without execution.
Who’s your pick for the 2025 National Champion? Drop your prediction in the comments below — and get ready for a wild ride this fall.
